One early dissenter is retired Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok, a former General Staff officer. Hopefully, it will increase the pressure on Putin to step back from further escalation. As such, the appearance of critical commentary at this juncture bears careful scrutiny since it may be an early signal of broader pushback against the rush to war within the military ranks or against the continued prosecution of the war should it not be swift and successful. It is therefore not unreasonable to suppose that some may have grave concerns about Putin’s bellicose approach. And their leaders stand to shoulder a good share of the blame if things go wrong.
But we really don’t know what they are thinking.Īside from the Ukrainian people and their forces, Russian service members would be the people most directly bearing the costs of Putin’s aggressive strategy. The willingness of the Russian military to carry out an invasion of Ukraine is not questioned in Western media coverage of the planning for war, and there is no reason to doubt that they will carry out their orders. The Russian media has been vocal in blaming the crisis on the United States, claiming the need to protect Russian citizens in the breakaway Donbas from an imminent attack by Ukraine. A decision to launch new military action against Ukraine would have a momentous impact on Russia’s relations with the West and on Russian society. The Russian president’s ultimatum to the United States in December has caused the biggest international crisis in Europe since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. It is former KGB officers who dominate Putin’s inner circle-but it is the armed forces who would bear the burden of extensive military operations in Ukraine. And there are, of course, inter-service rivalries. Differences of opinion can even be found among leaders of the security organs-the siloviki. While it is true that decision-making in Russia is extraordinarily centralized around the person of Putin, there are policy debates and power struggles behind closed doors. Western analysts tend to assume that the Russian elite is monolithically united behind Putin and that his opinion is the only one that counts. Further, these could be the early signs of more forthright political opposition in Russia. Is it a sign of important stirrings in the attitudes of the Russian officer corps? It is plausible that their ideas could gain traction in Russian military circles should a war in Ukraine go poorly. However, it is highly unusual to see such critical commentary from retired senior officials who still have close ties to the military establishment. Surveys suggest that there is strong support for President Vladimir Putin across all sections of the Russian elite-for his assertive foreign policy and the military in particular. The consensus view is that these figures are far removed from the center of power and cannot be taken as representative of the views of the officer corps as a whole. Western analysts are unsure what to make of the surfacing of dissenting voices on the periphery of the Russian military community.
These dissenting voices attracted attention in the mainstream Western and Russian press. Early February saw two publications by retired Russian military officers that are highly critical of plans for military action against Ukraine. (PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo) With Russian forces poised to invade Ukraine, there are signs of possible dissent amongst Russia’s upper echelons.
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